We issued a Storm Watch 3 days ago and are now upgrading this to a Storm Update as we feel pretty confident that +6" of snow will impact a large enough portion of our coverage area starting Sunday afternoon through the end of Monday to justify this as a "storm" as opposed to a light event, but barely. The focus of the impacts will be in the far northern regions of NY, VT, NH, and ME along with the Eastern Townships of Quebec. No one will open for this storm, but turns are likely to be had by the hardcore because that's how we roll in the East!
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Synoptic Overview
We have large trough descending through the Rockies, and a sharp boundary is going to form from the Southwest to the Northeast that will slowly descend into the Northeast. There will be several waves of energy that pass along this boundary which will intensify the precipitation starting on Sunday, but the more notable snow is likely to occur on Monday with the second shortwave that is expected to be stronger.
In our Storm Watch we indicated that the ECMWF, which showed all rain possibly due to the model's over-amping, was likely wrong and we believed the GFS scenario was likely a better solution. Over the following three days the GFS has barely changed while the ECMWF has steadily, though not fully, moved towards the GFS solution.
