Ok folks, I spent a bunch of time looking at the 0z runs and dusted off my Rockwell Retro Encabulator so that I could precisely measure the modal interaction of magneto reluctance of the atmosphere. In other words, I dug deep into this because I know a holiday storm is of high interest even beyond the skiing, and I think we still have a snowstorm coming. It will be a mixed bag though with all rain to possibly all snow in parts of the Northeast. I think the most likely scenario would be snow accumulations topping out in the 6"-12" range with the ADK's and Northern New England along with Quebec's ski country being where those amounts are most likely to seen.
If you are traveling into these areas on Wednesday, it would be a good idea to put your snow tires on first because grandma ain't going to stop guzzling her hot toddies and stuffing the turkey and grab her tow chains in order to drag your car from a ditch with her truck.
I'm not going to lie, yesterday there was a notable regression in the GFS towards a missed connection that looked like we were in danger of being skunked, and the fact is that we still are. This is a large scale dynamic event with a lot of moving parts and ensembles still show a very wide spread despite how close we are. We are still 4-5 days out from when the snow probably falls and plenty will change over the coming days. There are some major loose ends concerning whether this storm changes to rain behind the snow with the chances of that the greatest in the ADK's and the lowest in the Longfellows of Maine. I do not at this time see a high chance of all or mostly snow extending south of the ADK's, Northern New England or within 75 miles of the coast, but there is a chance. If the coastal low forms earlier and becomes stronger, the possibility of notable snow in parts of Southern New England will increase. On the back end there's a signal for some lake effect, but not a strong or long-lasting one and no signs of an upsloping event right now.
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