Sugarbush reported 21" of snow since Monday, but the powder party is unfortunately over. 📷 Sugarbush

Weekend Outlook: 12/2-3

We had a glorious week of snow following a surprise over-performance in Vermont and parts of the ADKs in the last storm and then a nice push of very fluffy snow through Wednesday, but today the powder party comes to an end. Friday will see everyone warm above freezing and then we have a series of three precipitation events starting Friday evening, then Saturday AM, and then Sunday AM. Yes, we are going to get a storm on Sunday and Monday, and I will start Snowstorm Updates today!

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Introducing the Ski Conditions Forecast Map: We are introducing a new type of map in this post which will help track daily conditions. This will help everyone understand at a glance the temperatures and types of precipitation to expect, along with indicators for sticky snow and refreezes. Pay careful attention to these maps and please give us feedback in the comments here or on Facebook. These maps are only viewable by Premium Subscribers.

This weekend is going to have a little bit of everything from rain to snow, sticky snow, and a refreeze. This is a lot to communicate while covering 50 ski areas, but with the help of summary graphics this may be one of the shortest updates yet!

If you are interested in our weather coverage then you should definitely consider a Premium Subscription since our most actionable weather coverage including custom forecasting is reserved for Premium Subscribers. It's just $29.99 for a full 12 months of access, and you can give it a free test drive for 10 days by using the link below.

Saturday Forecast

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Synopsis: At open a second round of very light precipitation will impact W-NY, N-NY, N-VT, N-NH, and N-ME, and mostly clearly out by the afternoon. Sticky snow is likely in parts of N-NY, VT, and ME, especially in the morning.

Saturday's two concerns are light rain near the Canadian border and sticky snow. When you get over a foot of fresh pow that then warms above freezing and gets rained on without dropping below freezing, that snow is highly likely to become extremely sticky. There are going to be a lot of people traveling to Northern Vermont looking for a pow party and getting stopped in their tracks. My concerns are in Vermont from Killington and north, plus Holiday Valley, Bristol, Whiteface, Saddleback, and Sugarloaf. Sticky snow is definitely possible at other places which netted 6" of snow starting Monday, especially on the flats.

The precipitation likely starts as rain and in N-VT changes over to snow near noon and then a refreeze begins in the northern areas. Precipitation will generally be pretty light, likely not surpassing .25" on Saturday. I don't expect trails to become icy before the end of the day except maybe near the summits.

Let's take a look at the simulated radar and hourly temperatures during the Saturday ski day from 8AM to 4PM from today's 12z run of the NAM3K.

Here's our Ski Conditions Forecast identifying all of the primary conditions that are likely to be seen.

On Saturday you will generally you'll want to be in one of the yellow areas where sticky snow is not signaled, and remember there is still risk in some other areas mentioned above which were not indicated on the map.

Sunday Forecast

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A storm will hit the Northeast on Sunday spreading from the southwest to the northeast during the day. The exact timing and impacts of the Sunday storm vary a lot between models still and the conditions forecasts are likely not to verify in some cases.

North of the Albany, NY latitude flash freezes overnight are likely, but this is also where snow in the PM is most likely. South of Albany we are likely to see rain by open.

Due to strong disagreement on timing, temperatures, and types of precipitation, Sunday's forecast may not be highly accurate. I am certain however that there is a storm incoming starting Sunday that will likely bring snow to N-NY and Northern New England and rain elsewhere. I'm going to base my forecast primarily on the NAM3K for Sunday's forecast at this time. While this model is still adjusting, it seems to have a reasonable solution to the storm.

Saturday evening also sets up the start of the refreeze which might firm up all ski areas in N-NY and Northern New England. We do again have substantial model disagreement still regarding the scope of the refreeze. N-NY, N-VT, N-NH, and N-ME are most likely to freeze up over night. S-VT, and S-NH are less certain to refreeze overnight. Freezing up after two warm days and rain will produce some very icy conditions where it happens, at least until the snow hits. You will need sharp edges in those areas on Sunday. I can't stress enough the need to learn how to sharpen your edges when things like this happen in the Northeast.

Sunday to start the day we also likely will see rain in all other open areas, though it may be spotty at times. The intensity of the rain and where it is heaviest is also an open question due to a lack of decent model agreement.

Let's take a look at the simulated radar and hourly temperatures during the Sunday ski day from 8AM to 4PM from today's 12z run of the NAM3K.

And here's our Ski Conditions Forecast for Sunday as it stands right now.

It's too early to tell if there is a decent location for a good day with the combination of challenges and variability in the forecast. Areas that stay above freezing are likely to get rain, and areas that freeze up are likely to stay icy until the snow hits, and we're not exactly certain when that will happen quite yet.

Knowledge Is Powder!

-- Matt

Snowfall Forecast

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The focus of the snow will be in the Alleghenies, Poconos, Hudson Highlands, Southern Berkshires and Boston Metro. It's not moving back north! Snow will fall at rates in excess of 2" per hour during Tuesday with most of the snow having falling in PA by open while filling in during the day in Southern New England. There will be a small back-end to this system to refresh parts of NY, VT, and NH.

We'll start off with the updated snowfall map. The snow shield has continued to condense, and as always there will be greater variability on the northern and southern edges of notable snow where a shift of just 25 miles with a storm so tight can either double or halve the amount of snow at a given location.

literally no two models agree and the NAM3K notoriously wobbles all over the place from run to run and when you have a mixing situation no other model lays a hand on it for precipitation types. I feel pretty good about this forecast except for one thing, how fluffy the snow is (SWE ratios). If I'm expecting 10:1 and it comes in at 8:1, it's still the same amount of water, but it will fall short of my estimates. I have about 6" for instance forecasted at Sugarbush and 6" forecasted at Okemo, but Okemo should get about double the amount of water in that snow and the difference is how fluffy it is. Ratios are a major factor in forecasting snow and it is not an exact science. They're literally still studying how to best calculate this.

After yesterday's update NWS offices pulled much closer in line with my forecast after bumping some, but unfortunately some areas took a turn for the worse and the NWS is now also trimming and they are generally below my own forecast once again. Here's the 5AM update from the NWS.

We'll see who gets this one right I guess, but I feel pretty good about my forecast as it stands. NWS offices are in at least some cases treating this as an elevation storm, and they forecast accumulating snow, some of which will melt and settle after falling on bare ground, but I forecast for the top 2/3 of ski areas for what falls on top of snowpack. Those are two different types of treatment, but mixing those two different treatments together is pretty difficult and gives me an edge by only forecasting for ski areas. I also make other sorts of manual adjustments; call them judgement calls.

Wind Hold Forecast

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We'll have some AM wind issues in parts of S-VT, S-NH, S-NY, NE-PA, and SW-PA with a handful of issues persisting into the afternoon. Wind looks stronger and more persistent than it did yesterday and the threats will last longer than our guidance yesterday. Times are given for each ski area warned for when the threat should end.

We'll start off with the forecast map, then there will be a loop showing gusts from 8AM through 4PM and then there will be a discussion regarding timing and scope.

This is a bit better than what it looked like from longer-range, but part of this is due to the fact that wind will increase through the ski day and keep increasing beyond it, so we're going to miss some of the worst winds.

Here's the loop showing wind gusts on Wednesday by hour. Every ski area is different based on many factors. Some can tolerate up to 50 mph as modeled here, while at the other extreme some can only tolerate up to 30 mph, but only from certain directions. Generally in Northern New England the danger zone though starts at 40mph.

Timing and Driving Windows

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The leading edge of snow will will be strong and it will cause some travel issues Thursday evening in parts of New York and later into VT and the Berkshires. The Friday morning commute will primarily be a factor near the mountains in northern areas with some squalls remaining off the lakes in some intense bands of snow.

Here's a timestamped simulated radar from the NAM3K showing 7AM today through 7PM on Monday. This run shifted much warmer in Southern New England but I'm not completely buying that. The pinks and purples are freezing rain and sleet I don't really expect any freezing rain issues at open ski areas though, and sleet skis just fine, but it stings without something protecting your face is all.

Do not take the totals literally as this model overestimates snowfall on higher peaks especially above 15F. Treat this like a ratio.

I don't expect any issues in NY and VT at open, though Jay Peak starts getting into the danger zone shortly thereafter. NH and ME are a different story. Wildcat, Sunday River, and Sugarloaf are borderline in danger at about open and it will grow.


Knowledge Is Powder!

-- Matt

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