We've had a glorious week filled with both fresh snow in northern areas and snowmaking has been happening widely across the Northeast with temperatures in many cases reaching optimal levels, but this weekend is going to bring change.
Saturday we get warm humid air in front of our next system that will cause some visibility issues and even some widespread fog which may cause travel issues as well as issues on some slopes, plus some sticky pow that will melt for the first time since it fell.
As you probably know by now we have a storm incoming on Sunday, but you may still be able to make a nearly full dry day out of it if you plan carefully, but you will also need to try to miss some sticky snow and also some wind.
We will get some snow behind this system on Monday and I'll issue a Storm Update early this afternoon to help you better understand what will happen. There will be snow with this storm, and also wind, but also a lot of rain. The storm will be both a boom and a bust.
Saturday Forecast
Let's start out with the good stuff. It will be spring-like and comfortable for many to ski this Saturday if you pick 'em right, and I'll certainly give you all a heads up for what I am expecting. Terrain is building all over and we have a respectable amount of terrain now as well as more and more ski areas opening. For many, Saturday will be the best day for probably a couple of weeks, so make it happen! Here's the new and improved Ski Conditions Forecast for Saturday with the addition of a fog layer, and I'll discuss the highlights below.
Although Saturday shouldn't be rainy, there is a heap of moisture flowing north with the southerlies out in front of this storm and that's going to create fog and even mist on the mountains, possibly even some freezing mist in parts of Maine. Let's take a quick look at the NAM3K simulated radar for Saturday, and pay close attention to those little green and pink specks. When you see that in this particular version of the NAM3K, that generally means fog and mist on the mountains. There's also going to be a ton of fog on the coastal plain through the entire Northeast. This might cause travel issues Saturday morning as well as ski issues when it comes to visibility.
The other concern will be the fact that a lot of the pow that fell since last Sunday has stayed below freezing and will first thaw early Saturday. Unfortunately that means sticky pow for some. Crayoning wax onto dry bases with a quick buff is one trick I use, but you can't always power your way through sticky snow. Hunting that deep powder from last week in some cases may be a mistake, but I'm sure many will try. I've highlighted ski areas in VT, NH, and ME where I have concerns based on whether or not the pow was substantial, and whether or not it cycled before now (melting and refreezing helps snow not become sticky).
Sunday Forecast
We'll dive right into the new Ski Conditions Forecast map for Sunday, but this time there is a baselayer which indicates when the rain will start. I've chosen today's 6z ECWMF for timing, and it is faster than some other models, so I would expect the arrival time to generally not be faster than shown, and they may be up to 2 hours later. No one is going to refreeze overnight and that means whoever was sticky on Saturday will likely be sticky again, but Saddleback and Sugarloaf are being added to the list as this will be their first thaw. It will likely be worse overall than Saturday in that regard. We also have wind to deal with and I'll discuss that separately.
I have a loop of the 6z ECMWF also timestamped to go along with this so that you can visualize the progression of the rain. I expect a good number of ski areas in NY, NJ, PA, and maybe parts of Southern New England to not open on Sunday due to the combination of wind and rain.
So now for the wind. Wind will be lift-threatening about 2 hours ahead of the rain. So consult the map above for general timing. Wind hold forecasts confirm when a either a primary lift from the main base goes down for wind, or when other lifts are held for wind which limits or complicates access to 25% or more of open terrain for 2+ hours of the ski day. In this case don't expect many if any lifts to come back on line since it will probably be pouring rain when the wind lets up. I have some degree of warning out for almost every open ski area. The rain will make wind holds more likely so I've been somewhat aggressive. Expect many in NY, PA, CT, and MA to announce closing for Sunday, with maybe some others in Northern New England joining.
Knowledge Is Avoiding the Underdeveloped Powder and Wind!
-- Matt
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