Snowmaking & Opening Outlook

Snowmaking got underway at Sunday River last night with cheers from their faithful hardcore skiers and riders who have been patiently waiting for the season to begin. Killington, the perennial favorite for first to open in the East, chose to sit out this window but they are certainly not out of the race. I also have to recognize Ski Ward in Shrewsbury, MA who first opened their beginner slope the prior weekend utilizing snowmaking technology that incorporates refrigeration in order to make snow at temperatures above freezing.

I'm going to cover the snowmaking outlook, the race to open, and give some projections for who will open first and when, but to start I want to discuss Ski Ward's achievement.

Ski Ward Opened First*

For the second year in a row Ski Ward fired up their Latitude 90 L60 in early October. This system can make snow at virtually any temperature and has a peak output of 11 gallons per minute and 156 cubic yards of snow in 24 hours, however in the October temps it took them 2 1/2 weeks to cover an area approximately 30' x 300' to a depth of about 3 feet, or about 0.2 acres of terrain.

Although Ski Ward did open first on October 19th, was operating again this weekend, and has plans to continue weekend operations and ski school programs, I have to put an asterix on their achievement because this is just a short beginner slope. While Ski Ward is offering approximately 0.2 acres of beginner terrain, Killington generally opens with about 5 acres of skiable terrain, and Sunday River opens with about 7 acres with terrain at both being appropriate for advanced skiers and riders.

This is not simply a marketing stunt though for Ski Ward, it enables real operations, it allows them to get staff up to speed before the peak season hits, and they will be offering beginner classes starting on November 3rd. I'm not sure how to classify their achievement in the context of what skiers and riders broadly consider opening for the ski season. So while I do recognize their efforts and achievements in opening first, they do not qualify for what Snowology considers first to open in the East due to the limited scope of terrain, the type of terrain, and their operational plans. Some don't even qualify Killington's and Sunday River's openings to count until they offer terrain top to bottom. You are of course welcome to qualify this however you wish.

Snowmaking Outlook

This Sunday morning only offered marginal snowmaking conditions and Sunday River's efforts did not result in large quantities of snow being made as a result, and Killington sat this window out which may come as a surprise to some. The warm ground and boundary layer keeps the microclimates on this early season terrain more marginal than the temperature forecast may suggest, and the water temps in the snowmaking ponds are quite warm at present also. Tonight will be the coldest night so far of the fall and Monday night will be even colder but our next snowmaking windows are more distant and uncertain.

The following two temperature charts show the NWS point forecasts for the approximate location and altitude of the early season terrain at both Sunday River and Killington over the next week. Sunday River makes snow generally between 2,000' and 2,565' while Killington generally has an advantage in temperatures with their higher early season terrain altitudes of between 3,400' and 3,980', but Monday night will be quite marginal at Killington as the cold blast starts to move out.

It's important to understand that snowmaking is not determined directly by just temperatures, but the combination of temperature with humidity which establishes the wet bulb temperature. The wet bulb is never higher than the air temperature and it equals the air temperature at 100% relative humidity, but as the air dries the capacity of the air to to create evaporative cooling with snowmaking increases and early monday morning the wet bulbs should reach about 20F at both resorts. The snow guns being used at both locations are capable of making snow as high as a 28F wet bulb, though with very low production.

On Monday morning Sunday River has about a 9 hour snowmaking window and Killington has a 15 hour snowmaking window with production reaching moderate levels for a short time at both with wet bulbs as low as 20F. Monday evening through Tuesday morning will bring the next snowmaking windows to both. Sunday River has about a 15 hour window where they should reach a wet bulb of about 18F, and Killington has about a 12 hour window reaching a wet bulb of about 23F.

Midweek we'll see a warm phase with temperatures at both resorts likely reaching around 20F above normal, and that's not good of course. Saturday and Sunday morning next weekend currently looks like it may provide two short and marginal snowmaking windows before we are likely to warm up again similarly the following week.

There are no additional snowmaking windows through November 12th shown in the GFS presently, though anything beyond 7 days in weather modeling starts to enter into the 'fantasy range' so when the cold might return could certainly be earlier. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest warm ridging in the East to start the month of November which isn't the pattern cycle we need to be in for early season snowmaking. Snowmaking in October and the first half of November requires below average temperatures in the Northeast.

Killington Is Sitting This Window Out

Some may have been surprised this morning greeted with webcam views of green grass instead of a coat of white on the North Ridge of Killington. It's pretty clear that they have calculated that their snowmaking windows will not be enough to open and stay open, and the resort is in a multi-year project to modernize their snowmaking infrastructure and make it more efficient. Gone now are the K-3000 'air hogs' that used as much as 10 times the air and therefore diesel as the Low-E HKD snow guns that they are using now.

They're achieving efficiency not just in the production of snow itself, they are also no longer making snow repeatedly very early in the season when it is likely to mostly melt. They generally need 3 decent nights with 36 hours of snowmaking with wet bulb temps reaching the low 20's followed by weather that won't melt much of the snowpack before their next window and it will be warm this week and the next window looks marginal and uncertain. The K-3000's can make snow about 2F warmer than the HKD Phazers that they are using now, but the Phazers will actually help them increase production beyond opening day as air and not water is the limiting factor early in the season, so terrain expansion this season should happen more quickly despite the late start.

Based on current weather modeling I do not expect Killington to open until at least mid-November.

Could Sunday River Make It Open This Week?

There's a chance! They have approximately 24 more hours of production and already laid down a thin layer and the start of some piles on both Locke and Jordan last night. Normally they need about 36-48 hours of production to open, though that is clearly temperature dependent. With wet bulbs likely to reach around 20F Monday morning and around 17F Tuesday morning it is possible that they can achieve enough snowmaking production to open and claim the crown of first to open in the East! It's going to be tight though!

I'm going to give them a 60% chance of making it open by Wednesday, but if they miss being able to open should next weekend's little blast of cold give them some decent production they could make it open by Sunday given their head start, but otherwise we're likely looking at mid-November.

Sunday River doesn't tend to operate daily when they open early in the season. Typically they will open for just one day for passholders and then on Saturday and Sunday until around the second week of November when they start daily operations.

-- Matthew Scott