We finally have some lasting cold coming in that started on Sunday in spurts and allowed some to start targeting their base areas with snowmaking again. Clearly today isn't a snowmaking day, but the snowguns will be back on late tonight, and also most nights as far as the eye can see with increasing cold and longevity. By Saturday many ski areas in the Northeast will either stay below freezing for at least another week, or at least dip below freezing during the nights. This is what a pattern change looks like, and it's long overdue!
In order to determine when ski areas might open up I've done some checking around and of course I'm also tracking the weather for snowmaking temps and I roughly know the capabilities of many ski areas. I haven't of course talked to the majority of ski areas about their ability to hit targets anywhere between Friday and Sunday, but I have talked with some and I think these estimates are pretty solid for who is very likely to open, who has a chance of opening, and who is likely not to open this weekend. Note, given the weather many who miss Thanksgiving weekend will in fact open the following weekend unless their target dates are later.
Everyone in green is targeting opening by at least Saturday, though some will likely make it open on Friday. Many are officially "projecting" opening by Friday or Saturday, and in some cases not even projecting a date yet. They have the weather and enough might to make it open but the snow is not there yet and there is always the chance of an operational issue like a blown snowmaking pipe causing unforeseen delays. Regarding Friday specifically, it's going to be tight and only the biggest snowmaking systems are likely to be able to pull that off and they still could miss by a day, but many of the big guys want to open on Friday.
The ski areas in yellow aren't really messaging that they will be open, but they either would like to be open and likely to give it their best, or over near the Great Lakes it's possible that lake effect snow could help open them by Sunday in a longshot. I don't expect any in yellow to be able to open until Sunday with the exception of Bromont and Sunapee who maybe could make Saturday with their snowmaking.
Don't expect a lot of terrain to be available, we're talking generally 1 to 3 full runs and 1-2 lifts running, though some will be able to extend top to bottom by this weekend rather than uploading and downloading from higher terrain. Friday shouldn't be too busy, but Saturday has a chance of crowds at the more popular ski areas. Make sure to buy your tickets online if you don't have a pass because some places like ORDA's Belleayre, Gore, and Whiteface, along with places like Loon, Windham, and Cannon do limit tickets to levels that can trigger and lock you out. Loon and Windham can also limit Ikon Pass and requires reservations though I'm not sure if that might trigger this weekend or not. Always check the snow reports and buy in advance!!!
Drought Conditions May Be an Issue for Some
Many have expressed concern about the drought conditions that started in October and then progressed to severe or worse in come cases. Typically the change in seasons helps streamflows with increased precipitation and less evaporation. While rain and snow have come recently, and snow has been melting, we're not yet out of the woods.
Everyone should now have water to work with to get the snowguns going and open, but this cold hit looks like it will last the better part of at least 2 weeks and in some cases the water that refills the snowmaking ponds will start to dry up. I've heard concern from several in this regard.
Many refill their snowmaking ponds from nearby streams and rivers, while others refill from runoff of their own mountain. Those streams and rivers often require permits that limit withdraws to above certain levels of streamflow, and while they are likely fine right now, the cold and lack of rain over this 2+ week period could threaten their ability to refill ponds. The ones who rely on runoff will probably dry up faster.
So while this cold is deep and long, the water resources may not be there to fully take advantage of all of it. Generally speaking the larger the water source that they draw from, the higher the chances they have of being able to pull enough water out. Ski areas with concerns may spread snow a little light and target more optimal temperatures in order to stretch their resources further. Those that dry out may seem like they are not working to expand terrain when in fact they can't.
The good news is that it looks like after this storm and the backend departs in the middle of next week, modeling is suggesting up to 3 decent clippers coming through the Northeast which will add to those snowpacks and may be able to open even more terrain as the snowmaking ponds are starting to run dry.
Knowledge Is Powder!
-- Matthew Scott
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