Modeling is widely indicating the potential of 6"-12" of snow from this system across parts of the Northeast starting Sunday afternoon and lasting through all of Monday as an elongated clipper follows the northwest flow into the region with plenty of moisture and all snow in the northern areas of the Northeast and possibly further south. If present solutions confirm wind issues are also likely on both Monday and Tuesday behind this system as well as back end snow.

This is a relatively uncomplicated storm that doesn't involve more than one primary piece of energy that will come ashore in British Columbia early on Friday. Ensembles show strong support for a productive clipper in both the GFS (American Model) and GEM (Canadian Model), however the ECMWF (European model) shows a much wider spread as well as from run to run in the deterministic (single solution) modeling with different tracks and stronger support for a weaker system.‎

Impacts will be determined mainly by the track which will be influenced by the position of the Polar Jet Stream itself and is unlikely to waiver much but the intensity and amount of moisture may vary more widely. Presently the preferred track is near the US/Canadian border of NY/VT in all three models.‎

This storm will be traveling along just north of the Polar Jet Stream and will produce snow even in the warm quadrant closer to the center of the storm with limited r@!n potential further south. On the present favored track the heaviest snow would be seen near the ADKs, Greens, and Whites, as well as north on the upslope of the St. Lawrence into Quebec. If it does track further north this will primarily be a snowstorm for Quebec, but if it tracks further south it could tap more moisture and also jump the circulation to the coast where it would strengthen and turn more towards the northeast, potentially bringing heavier amounts of snow south of the Whites of New Hampshire and south of the Longfellows of Maine.‎

Storm Updates for this system are likely to start on Thursday.‎

KNOWLEDGE IS POWDER!