Alrighty folks, I think we've got this sorted out mostly. The forecast in Update #3 seems to be pretty good but my confidence is never 100% over the entire map of course. The mesoscale NAM3K (high resolution) and ECMWF models are now largely in line with my best guess from yesterday as of the 6z runs this morning, and most importantly I have not only better confidence but better visualizations, and I know those are important to aid in communicating and understanding.
There's a lot more to this than just the snow of course. There's going to be a warm up today across the region that will mank up the natural snow in some cases, but mostly in places that will get a refresh overnight, we're going to have some mixing in parts, all r@!n further south, and a refreeze pretty much at every tracked ski area in the Northeast by open on Saturday that will cause a light to moderate icing event for the southern half of the Northeast. Travel will also be moderately impacted on both Friday evening and Saturday morning for those who are driving through the 'swath' of snow. Fun stuff, and a PITA to forecast across an entire region so let's get right into it.
