Well, that was a doozy of a start of the holiday week to say the least, but things have gotten back to normal again mostly but I do want to start off by giving some detail about the lifts that are still under repair and how they may impact terrain availability and also crowding.
Attitash Flying Bear: A grip failure and detachment along with inspections and investigations by the NH Passenger Tramway Safety Board are keeping this lift off line with no estimate for its return and it will not be operational this weekend. This brings a loss of the upper mountain terrain at Bear Peak and is likely to cause extra traffic at Attitash Peak.
Stratton Gondola: 100 mph wind blew the roof off the top terminal of the gondola and they are working on repairing the roof and cleaning up the debris. They are hoping to have it ready for operation Saturday but that is not guaranteed. This will not cause any loss of terrain but if it persists on Saturday it could cause longer lines for other main base lifts. I always suggest starting in the Sun Bowl on busy days regardless.
Gunstock Panorama: The gearbox on the bottom terminal failed earlier this week and while they initially expected it to be back in action on Saturday it is no longer likely to happen this weekend due to parts availability. This is Gunstock's main lift and there is no summit access as a result and this also impacts their capacity.
Belleayre Express: Strong wind blew a tree over that impacted this lift while the ski area was shut down. They have been working on it but their snow report gives no immediate expectation of when it might be operational again. This lift serves the looker's left side of the mountain and it will be difficult to get back to the Overlook Quad from some of those trails and it also reduces their non-beginner terrain capacity by about 1/3.
As far as the weather goes, it's going to be a beautiful weekend with some isolated snow tonight through Friday and then another batch of light snow will brush the more northern areas during Sunday, and then on Monday a loosely organized clipper will start come through but most impacts won't be felt until Tuesday and Wednesday. Here's the ECMWF 6-hour precipitation intensity look covering all 4 days.
I'll start off with an update for the Friday Wind Hold Forecast as we will see some isolated issues, then I'll cover the Temperature Outlook, and then the Snowfall Outlook. It's not a lot of activity, though that's not a bad thing because I can tell you that beyond the isolated wind issues on Friday things look spectacular this weekend and I do expect it to be busy.
Friday Wind Hold Forecast
Snowfall Forecast
We'll start off with the updated snowfall map. The snow shield has continued to condense, and as always there will be greater variability on the northern and southern edges of notable snow where a shift of just 25 miles with a storm so tight can either double or halve the amount of snow at a given location.
literally no two models agree and the NAM3K notoriously wobbles all over the place from run to run and when you have a mixing situation no other model lays a hand on it for precipitation types. I feel pretty good about this forecast except for one thing, how fluffy the snow is (SWE ratios). If I'm expecting 10:1 and it comes in at 8:1, it's still the same amount of water, but it will fall short of my estimates. I have about 6" for instance forecasted at Sugarbush and 6" forecasted at Okemo, but Okemo should get about double the amount of water in that snow and the difference is how fluffy it is. Ratios are a major factor in forecasting snow and it is not an exact science. They're literally still studying how to best calculate this.
After yesterday's update NWS offices pulled much closer in line with my forecast after bumping some, but unfortunately some areas took a turn for the worse and the NWS is now also trimming and they are generally below my own forecast once again. Here's the 5AM update from the NWS.
We'll see who gets this one right I guess, but I feel pretty good about my forecast as it stands. NWS offices are in at least some cases treating this as an elevation storm, and they forecast accumulating snow, some of which will melt and settle after falling on bare ground, but I forecast for the top 2/3 of ski areas for what falls on top of snowpack. Those are two different types of treatment, but mixing those two different treatments together is pretty difficult and gives me an edge by only forecasting for ski areas. I also make other sorts of manual adjustments; call them judgement calls.
Wind Hold Forecast
We'll start off with the forecast map, then there will be a loop showing gusts from 8AM through 4PM and then there will be a discussion regarding timing and scope.
This is a bit better than what it looked like from longer-range, but part of this is due to the fact that wind will increase through the ski day and keep increasing beyond it, so we're going to miss some of the worst winds.
Here's the loop showing wind gusts on Wednesday by hour. Every ski area is different based on many factors. Some can tolerate up to 50 mph as modeled here, while at the other extreme some can only tolerate up to 30 mph, but only from certain directions. Generally in Northern New England the danger zone though starts at 40mph.
Timing and Driving Windows
Here's a timestamped simulated radar from the NAM3K showing 7AM today through 7PM on Monday. This run shifted much warmer in Southern New England but I'm not completely buying that. The pinks and purples are freezing rain and sleet I don't really expect any freezing rain issues at open ski areas though, and sleet skis just fine, but it stings without something protecting your face is all.
Do not take the totals literally as this model overestimates snowfall on higher peaks especially above 15F. Treat this like a ratio.
I don't expect any issues in NY and VT at open, though Jay Peak starts getting into the danger zone shortly thereafter. NH and ME are a different story. Wildcat, Sunday River, and Sugarloaf are borderline in danger at about open and it will grow.
Knowledge Is Powder!
-- Matt
