Simulated IR satellite from the HRRR model showing Wednesday morning.

Storm Update #2: 11/21-22

In update #1 there was a lot of disagreement in the models with the GFS acting drunk and showing a missed connection with the Arctic energy resulting in a skunk, though also less rain. The ECMWF however was still holding onto the storm with barely a blink and consistent for days. I leaned ECMWF based on a variety of factors, something I don't typically do at 4-5 days out when there is a disagreement due to a certain bias in that model, and that seems to have been the better educated guess thankfully. Both models are back in much better agreement as of Sunday afternoon and there are mostly only questions about the strength of the coastal low and that will affect precipitation types and amounts.

Let's take a quick look at the ECMWF showing Tuesday through Thursday.

Come Wednesday we should have 11 ski areas open for the season in the East (more to follow Friday and Saturday), and those will be our focus for this storm in terms of the effects. I only expect 6 open ski areas to remain mostly or all snow in this system at this time. Where it stays all snow it should be a free refill day with almost all of the snow falling by close even in Maine. Open ski areas that don't stay snow will experience at least a mix of frozen precipitation and mostly also a changeover to some rain at the bases. There may be some issues with lift and trail icing around open at some ski areas in Vermont.

This update will start the process of dialing it in for effects at ski areas for snow, precipitation types, wind holds, and also travel on Wednesday. I'm going to also share our first snowfall map of the season! Unlike previous forecasting on social media a full day of updates are in one post. I'll make adjustments to my approach as I get more used to doing larger updates like this, and reasonable feedback is always welcome.

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Who Might Stay All Snow (premium content starts here)